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the housing market in Florida

Florida Housing Market Trends & Forecast [2026]

March 3, 2026

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Every state is unique when it comes to the real estate market. That’s why it’s critical to understand the market you live or operate in. Whether you’re renting, buying, or selling, it will impact many aspects of your life. The housing market Florida is currently boasting is somewhat nuanced, so continue to do research on the area you’re looking into and do so diligently.

Florida Housing Market Overview

The Sunshine State is known for its beautiful weather and popular tourist attractions like Disney World, Universal Studios, and the Everglades National Park. Both retirees and spring breakers alike frequent Florida’s shores, as do young professionals to Tampa or glitzy businessmen to Miami. There is no limit to Florida’s appeal, but is it equally appealing to purchase a home there in 2026?

Florida used to be known for its affordability and favorable tax laws—combine those traits with beaches and a warm climate and you have people fleeing other, colder states for Florida when the pandemic freed 9-5ers from their offices. This sudden surge of buyers triggered new construction that has seemed to continue to today. However, no longer does Florida have the flood of new buyers that the pandemic brought, and the Florida housing market is being somewhat cooled by an excess of inventory in some zip codes. While this may sound good for buyers, keep in mind that the most recent new inventory is due in part to renovations and rebuilding projects necessary after the devastation of Hurricane Ian, which caused an estimated $112.9 billion in total damage. Most Florida zip codes still have inventory levels below their pre-pandemic 2019 numbers sustaining high prices and a difficult market for middle-class homebuyers.

Florida’s housing market in 2026 reflects easing price growth, rising insurance concerns, and improved buyer leverage compared with the pandemic-era boom. According to Redfin, Florida home prices were up about 0.2% year-over-year in early 2026 with a median sale price around $412,500, indicating prices have largely stabilized after earlier rapid increases.

However, homeowners insurance remains a challenge in Florida due to weather risk and market dynamics. Although some carriers are planning rate reductions for 2026 and state reforms aim to stabilize costs, premiums are still typically higher than the national average and vary significantly by location.

Overall, Florida’s housing market in 2026 shows price stabilization rather than steep increases, better inventory and sales conditions, moderately lower mortgage rates, and ongoing affordability pressures from insurance and cost of living factors compared with earlier years.

Florida Housing Market Trends

To understand the Florida real estate market, it’s important to keep up with trends. Let’s look at some key ones in Florida:

Note: These statistics are based on Redfin’s monthly housing data from May 2024.

Median Home Price

The median home price in Florida is currently $412,500, up 0.08% from last year. Some cities in Florida have risen as much as 17% in Miami-Dade County, marking a record-breaking $650,000 sale price for homes in that area. A Florida State professor told the Miami Herald that the higher market within some Florida towns like Miami is pushing the median price up and up while the rest of the market will decrease in price due to high interest rates.

Homes Sold in January 2026

In January, Florida saw 21,724 homes sold according to Redfin. However, keep in mind that this number might be lower compared to other months since nationally speaking, sales usually peak during the spring and summer months and slow in the winter. In fact, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts that in February and March alone, sales activity increases by as much as 34% and prices by 3%.

Median Days on Market (DOM)

Days on market (DOM) is a measure of the average length of time a home remains listed on the market before being put under contract. A lower DOM signals a highly competitive seller’s market with more pressure on buyers to make higher offers and remove contingencies. A higher DOM signals a buyer's market as sales are slower and sellers have less leverage.

The current median days on market (DOM) in Florida is 82 days. This is one of the highest DOM rates in the country. In Cape Coral, FL, the average single-family home took 31 more days to sell than the previous year, making the biggest jump of any city in the nation.

What’s a leading cause of this stagnation in DOM rates? New construction.

New Supply Statistics

The housing market after the great pandemic migration to Florida has finally plateaued, in part due to new construction rates.

Florida continues to see strong residential construction activity, helping boost overall housing supply after the pandemic-era surge in demand. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, Florida authorized around 15,200 new privately owned housing units in October 2025, reflecting continued permit issuance as builders respond to ongoing development needs.

Construction reporting from industry sources also shows thousands of new residential building permits statewide through 2025, including months with more than 5,000 permits issued in regions such as Southwest Florida, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, and Southeast Florida, indicating broad builder engagement across the state.

Despite this construction activity, recent housing data suggests supply pressures remain nuanced. Statewide listings rose modestly, with active homes for sale increasing year-over-year and average days on market trending upward, signaling that additional supply is helping balance the market, but hasn’t fully resolved affordability challenges.

It’s important to note that some of these new construction permits could have been issued due to rebuilding and renovating efforts following Hurricane Ian. Various organizations like the Hurricane Ian Rebuild Housing Repair and Replacement Program have launched, using federal funding to help families rebuild from the devastation Ian caused. Most planned construction efforts like renovations or rebuilding projects need a permit, so this could have impacted the high level of permit issuing rates.

Property Tax Rate

The average property tax rate in Florida is 0.91% according to Rocket Mortgage. The average effective property tax rate for the United States is 1.10%, so Florida is relatively below the median.

Florida also is one of the seven states that does not collect personal income tax, and Florida citizens can benefit from no state tax on Social Security as well as other convenient tax benefits. However, though the tax rates are lower, certain costs associated with living in Florida like insurance premiums and heightening home prices can offset what little you pay in property tax.

Foreclosure Rate in January 2026

Per ATTOM, there was one foreclosure for every 2,067 Florida housing units in the first quarter of 2026. Florida ranks number three for the highest rate of foreclosures in the nation, marking a 77.79% increase over the last quarter of 2024.

During COVID, federal and state foreclosure moratoriums paused many filings. Once those protections fully expired, delayed cases began moving through the system. That created a backlog effect, which inflated filing numbers in 2025 and into 2026.

Florida homeowners also face some of the highest insurance premiums in the country due to hurricane risk and insurer exits. Rapid premium increases have raised total monthly housing costs, therefore pushing some owners into delinquency.

Hottest Local Markets in Florida

1. Winter Park

Winter Park’s housing market is on the rise with an average median home price of $619,000 marking an decrease of 13.5% compared to January of 2025.

Redfin says Winter Park’s market is somewhat competitive. Homes typically sell around 41 days, and some can sell below the list price. However, this signifies a rare opportunity for buyers—in the current market, many homes sell above list price and at a breakneck pace. In Winter Park, although home prices have spiked, buyers may have more options than is typical for the current market.

1. Orlando

Home to Disney World and SeaWorld, Orlando seems like the perfect tourist destination. But what is the housing market like for those who want to live there full-time?

Redfin says Orlando is somewhat competitive, and some homes get multiple offers. The median home price in January 2026 was $410,000. The hottest homes can go pending in around 19 days and will on average sell about 4% below list price.

1. Coral Gables

Coral Gables is one of Florida’s most expensive zip codes, with homes selling for a whopping average of $1,600,000. This median home price is around 22.7% higher than last year. The New York Post claims that Florida’s influx of pandemic-era movers boosted Coral Gables above ritzy Manhattan listings that once held the number one spot. The elite gated Gables Estates homes sell for an average of $21 million. In fact, Florida now has seven of the ten most expensive United States neighborhoods according to Bloomberg.

Multiple offers on one home in this area are rare. The hottest homes in this market can go pending in 42 days.

Economic Factors Impacting the Florida Housing Market

A holistic view of Florida’s housing market requires a basic understanding of the main economic drivers affecting the market. Let’s look at a few critical ones below:

Mortgage Rates

As of June 24, 2024, Florida interest rates are 6.07% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. Mortgage rates in Florida are expected to stay lofty for the foreseeable future, according to Bankrate. High mortgage rates keep homeownership unattainable for many American families.

First-time homebuyers may be eligible for certain affordable mortgage and down payment assistance. If you think you qualify, research programs like Florida Assist, the Florida Homeownership Loan Program, and HFA Preferred Grants.

Inflation and Cost of Living

Inflation in Florida reached 3.9% in March 2024. Governor Ron DeSantis blames rising interest rates for Florida’s inflation and promises further inflation-easing measures to come.

Florida’s previously low cost of living and warmer weather was attractive for buyers, but its quickly increasing population has driven up housing prices, along with other expenses like groceries. This trend is congruent with the past few years of rising Florida inflation rates according to the United States Congress Joint Economic Committee.

Population Changes and Demographics

Florida continues to grow, but recent data show that the pace of migration is slowing compared with the pandemic boom years. The state’s population remained strong overall, with estimates showing it nearing 23.4 million residents in 2025 according to updated demographic summaries.

However, net domestic migration has dropped sharply since its peak. U.S. Census Bureau data show Florida’s net domestic migration fell to about 22,500 in 2025, down dramatically from over 180,000 in 2023 and more than 310,000 in 2022.

Other Factors for Florida: Insurance

There is an insurance crisis in Florida, delaying home buying and slowing the entire housing market in the state.

Florida’s homeowners insurance market remains a major affordability constraint in 2026. Litigation costs and insurer instability pushed premiums higher for years, and while recent reforms have started to slow premium growth, many homeowners still face elevated total housing costs. A key driver has been litigation volume: Florida has been cited as the location of about 79% of U.S. homeowners insurance lawsuits while receiving roughly 9% of claims, which contributed to insurer losses and rate pressure before reforms.

Market disruption also increased reliance on Citizens Property Insurance Corporation. Citizens reports policy counts above 1 million in 2024 and then falling below 1 million as depopulation accelerated and private carriers assumed policies.

In 2026, insurance still raises monthly ownership costs and can delay buying decisions, especially in higher-risk areas, even as state reforms aim to stabilize the market.

Florida Housing Market Predictions 2026

Heading into 2026, most expert forecasts suggest Florida’s housing market will continue shifting toward stability rather than rapid growth, with affordability and inventory playing big roles:

• Prices mostly flat or slightly down: Forecasts based on Florida market data project modest price movements, with median home prices in some areas flat or declining slightly at around 2% lower year-over-year in 2026.
• Moderate or very low appreciation: Some analysts expect little to no statewide price growth, with price changes below 1% in many markets because of higher rates and affordability constraints.
• Inventory rising and market balancing: Florida Realtors reports inventory growing and prices stabilizing, which should reduce intense seller advantages and create more negotiation space for buyers.

In summary, predictions for 2026 lean toward stable to slightly softer prices, improving inventory, and less frenetic buyer competition, rather than big price spikes or a broad market crash. Affordability pressures from insurance and borrowing costs will continue shaping activity throughout the year.

Likelihood of Florida Housing Market Crash

When will the housing market crash in Florida? Not anytime soon. Florida’s housing market remains healthy for now, though if interest rates remain high the market may suffer slightly. A healthy market is in part evidenced by many buyers who can purchase homes with payments that are less than 30% of their monthly income—this ideal is becoming less and less realistic for many Americans today, especially in Florida.

Some characterize a healthy market by the months of supply. Usually, a market with six months of supply is considered balanced, with fewer months meaning that buyers are favored in the current market. Florida’s housing supply is up 2% from last year for four months of supply, which is not quite at that six-month mark, but is not far enough off to indicate a worrying shortage.

Experts do not expect a housing crash anytime soon, though they advise prospective buyers to save as much money as possible and improve their credit to increase their ability to purchase in this market.

Forecast for The U.S. Housing Market

Now that we’ve looked at Florida’s housing market, let’s zoom out a little bit. What about the U.S. housing market? What do you need to keep an eye on in the coming years?

The United States' current median existing-home sale price is around $415,200 per the National Association of Realtors. The inventory, though, remains low. A balanced market typically has a 5-to-6-month supply, but the current figure is 3 months, keeping conditions constrained.

We’re currently in a seller’s market with buyers looking at continued rising house prices—although they are rising at a slower pace compared to previous years.. The same trend can be seen with renters. Housing continues to appreciate, in general. 

Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research, National Association of Realtors, believes the housing market will appreciate 15 to 25% over the next five years. He thinks that the seller’s market will continue because housing inventory will remain low. In 2026, he predicts that existing home sales will rise an additional 13%. Yun expects mortgage rates to stabilize at the lower end of the current 6-7% range through 2025 and 2026 as the Federal Reserve continues gradual rate cuts. There's an anticipation of a more balanced market in the coming years, with moderate price growth and a greater amount of Americans re-entering the market.

Hybrid work also impacts the housing market. This shift in work culture means suburbia will continue to grow. States like Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Florida should see continual growth.

The number of single-family homes built decreased over the past couple years while the number of multi-family homes increased due to lower prices and a demand for affordable housing. Year-to-date single-family housing starts were down about 7.1% in 2025, whereas starts for buildings with five or more units were up roughly 14.5% Higher mortgage rates and inflation (affecting price of materials) were the main causes.

Lower income households continue to struggle in the current housing market. This trend appears likely to continue into the foreseeable future. According to the National Association of Home Builders, approximately 74.9% of U.S. households were unable to afford a newly built median-priced home in 2025. Without enhanced supply or helpful subsidies, the outlook is that many Americans will still wrestle with housing affordability in the years to come.

Florida Rental Market

Florida’s rental market in 2026 is moving into a more balanced phase after years of rapid post-pandemic rent growth. Statewide data show the average rent around $2,300 per month, which is slightly lower than the previous year, reflecting modest softening rather than steep declines.

Vacancy rates statewide have ticked up as new multifamily units come online, giving renters slightly more options and easing pricing pressure that previously favored landlords. However, rental demand remains fundamentally strong in many areas, especially where employment and population growth are robust.

Overall, rent growth in Florida is stabilizing in 2026 rather than soaring, offering a more balanced environment for both renters and landlords. As supply continues to adjust and demand remains steady, the market is expected to see moderate rent trends and increasing choice for tenants throughout the year.

This short summary leads directly into Florida’s current rental market, with key trends from Zillow:

Florida Rental Market Key Trends

• Median Rent: $2,350
• Month-Over-Month Change: +$25
• Year-Over-Year Change: -$90
• Available Rentals: 101,459

Conclusion

Whether you’re looking to buy a home in Orlando or Miami, it’s important to keep an eye on interest and mortgage rates in that area within the housing market Florida provides and continue to do research on the state and its fluctuating housing market. Buying a home is no small feat, and with this market, it will take time and effort. However, Florida homes are not impossible to purchase, and your dream listing could be out there. Consult with a trusted real estate agent or professional within the real estate space if you want to learn more about the Florida housing market scene.

FAQs

Are Florida home prices going down in 2026?

Most forecasts suggest price stabilization or slight softening, not a major crash. Some areas may see small declines while others remain flat.

Why is Florida housing less affordable now?

Higher insurance premiums, elevated mortgage rates, and pandemic-era price growth have increased total housing costs.

Is Florida still gaining population?

Yes, but at a slower pace than during the 2020–2022 migration boom. Net migration remains positive, though growth has cooled.

Are Florida rents still rising?

Rent growth has slowed, and in some markets rents are flat or slightly down as new supply increases.

Is a housing crash likely in Florida?

Current data does not indicate a systemic crash. The market shows normalization and rebalancing, not widespread distress.