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the housing market in Hawaii

Hawaii Housing Market Trends & Forecast [2026]

March 4, 2026

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Every state is unique when it comes to the real estate market. That’s why it’s critical to understand the market you live or operate in. Whether you’re renting, buying, or selling, it will impact many aspects of your life.

In this article, we’ll discuss the Hawaii housing market, including all the key metrics, insights, and forecasts you need to know if you’re interested in real estate on the Hawaiian Islands.

Hawaii Housing Market Overview

Hawaii is one of the most unique U.S. states. Not only is the Aloha State the only archipelago in the nation, but its geography is some of the most diverse in the world, ranging from arid deserts to lush green rainforests, snow-capped mountains, active volcanoes, beautiful bays, and of course, tranquil beaches.

Hawaii is composed of 137 volcanic islands, with the largest eight being the most well-known: Ni’ihau, Kauai’i, O’ahu, Moloka’i, Lana’i, Kaho’olawe, Maui, and Hawai’i. Two thirds of the state’s population live on O’ahu, home to Hawaii’s capital city of Honolulu. Culturally, these islands are a melting pot of Indigenous Hawaiian, East Asian, and North American heritages, including the only Asian American/Pacific Islander plurality in the U.S.

The housing market Hawaii currently has is equally unique. Historically, Hawaii has been a plantation economy and remains a major agricultural exporter today due to its warm tropical climate. However, increased tourism in the 1860s and 70s quickly transformed the state’s economy. More infrastructure and development quickly followed, fortifying the tourism industry in the 20th century as the islands received more and more visitors seeking tropical paradise—but at a cost.

Developers, investors, and local residents continue to compete for Hawaii’s limited housing supply. Because the islands have extremely limited buildable land and strict zoning constraints, housing construction has struggled to keep pace with demand. As a result, Hawaii remains one of the most expensive housing markets in the United States, and the state continues to face a severe affordable housing shortage. According to the Hawaii Housing Finance and Development Corporation, Hawaii needs tens of thousands of additional housing units over the next decade to meet current demand.

Home prices remain extremely high. As of early 2026, the median home sale price in Hawaii is around $850,000 statewide, with prices often exceeding $1 million in parts of Oahu and Maui depending on neighborhood and property type. High prices and limited inventory continue to make homeownership difficult for many local residents.

Hawaii Housing Market Trends

To understand the Hawaii real estate market, it’s important to keep up with trends. Let’s look at some key ones in Hawaii:

Note: These statistics are based on Redfin’s monthly housing data from January 2026.

Median Home Price

The median home sales price in Hawaii is $757,100, up 1.9% since this time last year according to Redfin’s monthly housing data from January 2026. As of early 2026, Hawaii has the second highest median home price in the country, behind only California. Prices will, of course, vary depending on whether you’re looking at modest housing in more rural areas of the islands or high-end luxury resort neighborhoods. In East Honolulu, for instance, median home prices are in the millions.

Number of Homes Sold in January 2026

790 homes sold in Hawaii in January of 2026, down from 865 sold this time last year. This metric gives us a good picture of the current sales volume in Hawaii. However, keep in mind that this number might be lower compared to other months since nationally speaking, sales usually peak during the spring and summer months and slow in the winter. In fact, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts that in February and March alone, sales activity increases by as much as 34% and prices by 3%.

Median Days on Market (DOM)

Days on market (DOM) is a measure of the average length of time a home remains listed on the market before being put under contract. A lower DOM typically signals a highly competitive seller’s market with more pressure on buyers to make higher offers and remove contingencies. A higher DOM usually signals a buyer's market as sales are slower and sellers have less leverage.

The current median days on market (DOM) in Hawaii is 106 days. This high DOM is likely due in part to restricted affordable inventory and extremely high listing prices of resort homes, which take longer to sell on average.

New Housing Supply

Housing construction in Hawaii remains limited, which continues to constrain overall housing supply. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, about 3,879 new housing units were authorized by building permits in Hawaii in 2024, a relatively small number compared with many states. Because Hawaii has limited buildable land, strict zoning regulations, and lengthy permitting processes, new construction has struggled to keep up with demand. Research from the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization notes that the pace of new housing development in the state remains historically low, contributing to ongoing shortages and affordability pressures.

Property Tax Rate

The average property tax rate in Hawaii is 0.32%, according to Rocket Mortgage. Hawaii’s average property tax rate is the lowest in the country. This is mainly because Hawaii’s taxation system differs from other states: the State of Hawaii funds public education rather than individual counties, leading to a lower tax rate for residents.

However, it’s important to put this in perspective: Hawaii may have the lowest property tax rate, but because property values are among the highest in the nation, the average Hawaiian homeowner’s tax bill is still about $937.

Foreclosure Rate in January of 2026

In January of 2026, 1 in every 7,011 homes experienced a foreclosure filing (according to recent data from ATTOM). Based on this data, Hawaii's foreclosure rate is lower compared to other states, ranked at 40th nationwide.

Hottest Local Markets in Hawaii

Hawaii features a variety of housing markets sought after by homeowners and real estate investors. Here are a few of them:

1. Waikoloa

Located on the northwest corner of the Big Island, Waikoloa has been rated the second best residential real estate market in Hawaii, with a reported 78.44% property value appreciation rate. Waikoloa’s beach resorts and luxury condos thrive nestled between ancient lava rock fields on the scenic Kohala Coast, where the median cost of a home is upwards of $868,000.

1. Hilo

Also located on the Big Island, this eastern neighborhood is only about 40 minutes from Hawaii Volcanoes National Park. Although this neighborhood isn’t very competitive, it does feature slightly more affordable homes, with median property prices settling at $493,000. Residents here enjoy the peaceful environment of Wailuku State Park, beautiful views of Rainbow Falls, and the unique basalt lava rock pool known as the “Boiling Pots.”

1. Waikiki

This Honolulu neighborhood is located on the island of O’ahu. Waikiki is a center of tourism, nightlife, and culture in the state’s capital city, harboring high demand for vacation rentals, resort properties, and luxury homes. Shopping, dining, and cultural events are found in Waikiki year-round, promising uninterrupted opportunities for both homeowners and real estate investors. The median home price here is slightly more affordable compared to other Hawaii neighborhoods, at $478,000.

Economic Factors Impacting the Hawaii Housing Market

A holistic view of Hawaii housing market requires a basic understanding of the main economic drivers affecting the market. Let’s look at a few critical ones below:

Mortgage Rates

High mortgage rates are a continuing challenge for would-be homeowners in the U.S. Hawaii’s average rates for 30-year mortgages in January of 2026 are slightly lower than the national average at 6.00%. Higher interest rates deter borrowing and discourage those who already own homes from putting their homes on the market. Many homeowners report feeling “locked in” to their current homes, as it is unlikely they will secure a mortgage rate as low as their current one on their next property. Prospective buyers in Hawaii should monitor mortgage rates in the coming months for a better understanding of how they impact the housing market.

Inflation and Cost of Living

Mortgage rates are tied to inflation, another massive contributing factor to the affordability of housing and the state of housing markets in general, but especially in Hawaii. As mentioned above, Hawaii has one of the highest costs of living in the nation. This means fewer people can truly afford to limit rent or mortgage payments to less than 30% of their monthly income. The burdens of high housing and living costs fall especially hard on younger generations in Hawaii, who anticipate struggling to afford to remain in Hawaii beyond their educations.

Population Changes and Demographics

Population, employment, and migration trends each impact the housing market in Hawaii, which has an especially unique demographic profile. Hawaii has a negative net migration, meaning that more people (often locals) are moving out of Hawaii than to the state. The state’s increasingly tourism-dependent economy has replaced much of the islands’ native population, who are seeking jobs and affordable housing on the mainland. Housing shortages caused by over-regulation and zoning are also responsible for out-migration in Hawaii. The loss of local populations will doubtlessly impact Hawaii’s economy and housing market in the coming years.

Other Factors for Hawaii: Climate and Shoreline Loss

Like most Pacific Islands, Hawaii has a front-row seat when it comes to changes in oceanic climate patterns.

Currently, Hawaii faces several climate and eco-emergencies. Increasing ocean temperatures are damaging coral reefs and delicate marine ecosystems on the islands, where diminishing algae levels is leading to coral bleaching and disease. Not only is this devastating from an ecological standpoint, but it also spells trouble from a financial perspective: Coral reef-related tourism brings in about $385 billion each year.

Additionally, invasive species like Californian shrubs and grasses are outgrowing native species in Hawaii, increasing the risk of wildfires. As recent fires in Maui are testament to, wildfires can have a permanently damaging effect on both ecosystems and human life.

Among the chief climate concerns for Hawaii is shoreline loss due to rising sea levels. Since 1960, sea levels in Hawaii have risen two to eight inches. Although a few inches might seem relatively insignificant, experts at Oceanographic Magazine predict that up to 40% of O’ahu’s beaches could be lost by 2050. Homes on Hawaii’s coastlines are already being lost to coastal erosion, increasing insurance costs and spelling change for the way developers in Hawaii must approach real estate in the coming years.

Coral reefs, coastal beaches, and wildlife are the foundation of Hawaii’s economy. Without them, Hawaii’s housing and real estate landscape will suffer drastically. Although the situation is alarming, there is fortunately much research being done in building design to attempt to mitigate some of these growing risks for homeowners in Hawaii.

Hawaii Housing Market Forecast 2026

Hawaii’s landscape and history require a singular approach to real estate. Unique challenges, cultural and ecological, are faced by the islands’ residents, investors, and developers, including some that require immediate attention in order to maintain housing stability for thousands who live on the islands and thousands of others who would like to.

However, if stakeholders, local governments, developers, and others can rise to these challenges, the future of Hawaii’s housing market will remain bright. There will always be a high demand for vacation and rental properties in Hawaii, promising real estate investors sustained growth.

Hawaii’s 2026 forecast leans toward stability with uneven pricing by island. Statewide home values and prices have softened slightly year-over-year in early 2026, showing some affordability pressure and slower demand at current financing costs. UHERO’s 2026 forecast notes mortgage rates staying near 6% while construction activity remains elevated, which could support supply but keep affordability tight for many buyers.

Likelihood of Hawaii Housing Market Crash

The Hawaii housing market shows no signs of an incoming housing market crash. Unceasing year-round demand for housing in Hawaii makes it extremely unlikely that there will be a housing market crash in the state anytime soon.

Forecast for The U.S. Housing Market

Now that we’ve looked at Hawaii's housing market, let’s zoom out a little bit. What about the U.S. housing market? What do you need to keep an eye on in the coming years?

The United States' current median existing-home sale price is around $415,200 per the National Association of Realtors. The inventory, though, remains low. A balanced market typically has a 5-to-6-month supply, but the current figure is 3 months, keeping conditions constrained.

We’re currently in a seller’s market with buyers looking at continued rising house prices—although they are rising at a slower pace compared to previous years.. The same trend can be seen with renters. Housing continues to appreciate, in general. 

Dr. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research, National Association of Realtors, believes the housing market will appreciate 15 to 25% over the next five years. He thinks that the seller’s market will continue because housing inventory will remain low. In 2026, he predicts that existing home sales will rise an additional 13%. Yun expects mortgage rates to stabilize at the lower end of the current 6-7% range through 2025 and 2026 as the Federal Reserve continues gradual rate cuts. There's an anticipation of a more balanced market in the coming years, with moderate price growth and a greater amount of Americans re-entering the market.

Hybrid work also impacts the housing market. This shift in work culture means suburbia will continue to grow. States like Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, and Florida should see continual growth.

The number of single-family homes built decreased over the past couple years while the number of multi-family homes increased due to lower prices and a demand for affordable housing. Year-to-date single-family housing starts were down about 7.1% in 2025, whereas starts for buildings with five or more units were up roughly 14.5% Higher mortgage rates and inflation (affecting price of materials) were the main causes.

Lower income households continue to struggle in the current housing market. This trend appears likely to continue into the foreseeable future. According to the National Association of Home Builders, approximately 74.9% of U.S. households were unable to afford a newly built median-priced home in 2025. Without enhanced supply or helpful subsidies, the outlook is that many Americans will still wrestle with housing affordability in the years to come.

Hawaii Rental Market

Hawaii’s rental market remains one of the most expensive in the U.S. heading into 2026. Zillow’s statewide rent tracker puts the average rent in Hawaii at about $3,000, with little movement over the past year, which suggests rent levels have stayed elevated rather than falling meaningfully.

On Oahu, rents continue to run high. RentCafe reports an average rent of about $2,664 on Oahu, up roughly 4.6% year-over-year, showing ongoing upward pressure in the state’s largest rental market.

Vacancy conditions help explain why rents stay sticky: Hawaii’s rental vacancy rate was 7.4% in 2024 (latest annual data), and Maui in particular has faced extreme tightness due to the post-wildfire housing crunch and ongoing displacement pressures into 2026.

This short summary leads directly into Hawaii’s current rental market, with key trends below from Zillow:

Hawaii Rental Market Key Trends

• Median rent: $3,000
• Month-over-month rent change: $0
• Year-over-year rent change: $0
• Available rentals: 2,748

Conclusion

Hawaii’s 2026 housing market remains defined by high prices, limited new construction, and uneven performance by island, while the rental market stays elevated with little statewide rent relief. Buyers and investors should expect slower sales and longer listing times, but persistent supply constraints keep prices from correcting sharply.

FAQs

Are Hawaii home prices rising or falling in 2026?

As of January 2026, prices are slightly lower year-over-year (−1.9%), even though many neighborhoods remain expensive due to limited supply.

Why do homes take so long to sell in Hawaii?

The median home takes about 106 days to go pending, largely because high prices and financing costs narrow the pool of qualified buyers.

Is Hawaii building enough new housing?

Not really—Hawaii authorized 3,879 building permits in 2024, a low level of new supply for an already supply-constrained market.

What is the average rent in Hawaii in 2026?

Zillow estimates the statewide average rent at $3,000, and it shows no year-over-year change as of early March 2026.

What is Hawaii’s housing outlook for the rest of 2026?

UHERO expects mortgage rates to remain near 6%, which can keep affordability tight even as construction stays active—supporting a “stable but expensive” market.